According to @KobeissiLetter, following the release of May CPI inflation data, prediction market platform Kalshi now shows increased expectations for two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. This shift in rate cut expectations could drive renewed momentum in the cryptocurrency market, as lower interest rates often support risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Traders should monitor macroeconomic data closely, as further easing could impact crypto prices and volatility. Source: @KobeissiLetter via Twitter.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump has called for a substantial 100 basis point rate cut following the release of new CPI inflation data this morning (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 11, 2025). This aggressive monetary policy stance, if enacted, could lead to increased liquidity in financial markets and potentially boost risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Traders should closely watch Federal Reserve responses and upcoming FOMC meetings, as a major rate cut would likely weaken the US dollar and drive greater demand for digital assets, impacting short-term BTC and ETH price movements.

According to Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly), the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May showed a month-over-month increase of 0.1%, which is lower than the estimated 0.2%. Year-over-year CPI met expectations at 2.4%. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also grew just 0.1% month-over-month, compared to a 0.3% estimate, and 2.8% year-over-year versus an expected 2.9%. This softer-than-expected inflation data may signal a less aggressive Federal Reserve policy, which could boost risk assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as traders anticipate a more favorable macro environment for cryptocurrencies. (Source: Stock Talk @stocktalkweekly)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US manufacturing input price index rose to approximately 65 points in March, marking the highest level in 31 months. Historical data suggests that when the index was at similar levels, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reached 8.5%, one of the highest since the 1980s. This trend is crucial for traders as it may indicate a potential rise in inflation, affecting interest rates and market conditions.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US manufacturing input price index surged to approximately 65 points in March, marking the highest level in 31 months. Historically, a similar index level correlated with a Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate of 8.5%, the third-highest since the 1980s, indicating potential inflationary pressure. This data could influence trading strategies focused on inflation-sensitive assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Canadian CPI inflation increased significantly in February, rising from 1.9% to 2.6% (1.1% MoM), surpassing the expected 2.2% YoY and 0.6% MoM. This spike indicates higher-than-anticipated inflationary pressures, which could impact the Canadian dollar and influence market trading strategies. The report cautions that this data does not yet account for all retaliatory tariffs, suggesting potential further increases. Traders should monitor upcoming inflation reports closely as the Canadian market could experience further volatility.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, S&P 500 futures have fallen by 120 points from their high, marking a significant reversal after the CPI inflation report. This movement indicates a strong market reaction to inflation data, potentially affecting trading strategies in the short term.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, S&P 500 futures surged as much as +100 points after the February CPI inflation report showed a decrease to 2.8%, lower than expected. This movement follows a previous 'short squeeze' call, with the S&P 500 now up +130 points since that prediction.

According to André Dragosch, CPI inflation is an unreliable metric, particularly for trading purposes, because it underestimates the true underlying rate of inflation due to factors like hedonic adjustments and substitution effects. Traders should consider alternative measures for assessing the price of money when making investment decisions. This view highlights the importance of using more comprehensive economic indicators to gain an accurate understanding of inflation's impact on cryptocurrency markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, prediction markets, as reported by @Kalshi, currently see a 23% probability of interest rate hikes returning in 2025. This sentiment follows a significant increase in CPI inflation, which recorded its largest month-over-month rise of 0.5% since August 2023. Additionally, PPI inflation has unexpectedly surged to its highest level since February 2023. These inflation metrics are critical for traders to consider as they may influence future monetary policy adjustments, potentially impacting cryptocurrency markets sensitive to interest rate changes.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 6-month annualized CPI inflation is approaching 4% while the 3-month annualized CPI is nearing 5%. The current headline CPI inflation at 3.0% seems overly optimistic, putting the Federal Reserve's target at least 100 basis points higher than their 2% goal. This inflationary trend has been anticipated by gold markets for months, indicating potential adjustments in trading strategies to accommodate the shifting economic landscape.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, current 6-month annualized CPI inflation trends toward 4%, while the 3-month annualized CPI approaches 5%. The headline CPI inflation is at 3.0%, which appears optimistic given the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This positions the Fed 100 basis points above their target, indicating potential pressure on interest rate adjustments. Gold markets have reacted to these inflationary trends for months, suggesting that inflation hedging strategies might be prudent for traders.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation surged by 0.5% over the past month, marking the largest monthly increase since August 2023. This unexpected rise in inflation, alongside core CPI inflation increasing to 3.3% instead of the anticipated 3.1%, signals potential challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy. Traders may need to brace for potential interest rate hikes as the Fed could act to curb rising inflation pressures.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has increased by 0.5% in one month, marking the largest surge since August 2023, contrary to expectations. Core CPI was anticipated to decrease to 3.1% but instead rose to 3.3%, which poses significant implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategies. This unexpected inflationary pressure may impact the Fed's interest rate decisions, affecting liquidity and market volatility.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, major financial institutions have released their January CPI inflation expectations, which are crucial for traders. Kalshi predicts a 2.9% inflation rate, which aligns with Barclays, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo's expectations. Bank of America and Moody's project a slightly lower rate of 2.8%, while Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and UBS anticipate a higher rate of 3.0%. These projections are essential for traders to gauge market sentiment and potential monetary policy adjustments.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, energy prices are directly tied to CPI inflation, and a Federal Reserve study indicates that a $10 drop in oil prices can reduce inflation by 20 basis points. With oil prices currently down by $10.20 from their peak, this significant decline over three weeks is expected to impact inflation rates.